Nice thing about the Android Play store is that the # of downloads of a specific app can be determined via public information.
- Appbrain can be used to figure out when certain download thresholds have been crossed. For example, Pebble recently (Nov 13, 2013) crossed over the 100K mark – meaning 100K users have installed their Android app (which is mandatory to use with the Pebble on Android). I doubt very much that the Samsung Gear would have delivered more Gears than Pebbles (and in a shorter period of time).
Using these two data sources, I can approximate the # of smart watches sold as follows:
- Sony SmartWatch 1 – < 750K (based on how long it took to reach 500K on appbrain)
- Metawatch – < 10K
- Sony SmartWatch 2 – < 80K
- MotoACTV – > 1.2M (they crossed 1M downloads over 1 year ago)
- Pebble – @ 300K (assuming Android users is @ the same as iOS users) and assuming @ 150K Android Pebble users
Augmented SmartWatch Pro should cross over 10K sales before the end of 2013, which would be < .5% of total estimated smart watches sold (Android).